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Flora Chui
M.A.Sc. Candidate
Department of Chemical Engineering
Office: DWE
2531
Phone: 519-888-4567 ext. 35675
Email: fwychui@uwaterloo.ca
Degrees: B.A.Sc. (University of Waterloo) |
Supervisor(s): Ali Elkamel, Peter Douglas, Eric Croiset
Research Interests
An optimal CO2 mitigation strategy for a network of power plants under uncertainty
In order to help mitigate the effects of climate change, Canada along with 160 other countries have signed the Kyoto protocol in order to decrease greenhouse gas (or CO2 equivalent) emissions. In this study, the focus is to reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation, and particularly in Ontario.
Hashim et al. (2005) have developed a deterministic mixed integer linear model, where the inputs were assumed to be known with certainty, to optimize a network of power plants under CO2 considerations. However, in power generation planning, demand, fuel prices, and many other parameters are uncertain. In this work, an attempt is made to prepare and solve a stochastic programming model that deals with uncertainties.
Optimization using stochastic programming overcomes the drawbacks of deterministic programming by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Uncertainties are often represented by using scenario sets and probability distributions. In the past, the tradition has been to develop scenarios by either assigning arbitrary values or by assuming certain percentages above or below the deterministic values. This work uses forecasting techniques in order to generate a more representative and reliable set of scenarios that can be used within the framework of a stochastic program. With this in mind, this study first forecasts electricity demand up to the year 2025 under different economic scenarios. The forecasts generate a scenario set that is used in conjunction with a stochastic programming model for electricity generation with CO2 mitigation options. The stochastic program will be solved in order to find a robust plan for CO2 mitigation and capacity expansion for Ontario power generation.
Publications
Chui., F., Elkamel, A., and Fatehifar, E. (2005). Developing New Correlations and Uncertainty Analysis for Ground and Maximum Ground Level Concentrations Predictions. International Journal of Environment and Pollution , accepted.
Chui, F., Elkamel, A., and Fowler, M. (2006). An Integrated Decision Support Framework for the Assessment and Analysis of Hydrogen Production Pathways. Energy & Fuel., v. 20 (1), p. 346-352.
Chui, F., Elkamel, A., and Fowler, M. (2005). Analytic Hierarchy Process and Life Cycle Analysis for the Assessment of Hydrogen Production Pathways. Proceedings of the International Hydrogen Energy Congress and Exhibition IHEC, Istanbul, Turkey.
Chui, F., Elkamel, A., and Fowler, M. (2005). Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Life Cycle Analysis for the Assessment of Hydrogen Production Pathways. Presented at 55th Canadian Chemical Engineering Conferences, Toronto, Canada.
